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Question: How do you decide when to buy your beef?

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    Question: How do you decide when to buy your beef?

    Input on that question would be greatly appreciated.

    The follow up question is: "Are there things that that would entice you to buy ahead, rather than just prior to your event?

    A bit of background:

    Our Business: We're a mid-sized farm-to-table cattle business located in Minnesota. We raise high end Wagyu beef. We currently harvest about 220 head per year, with the goal of getting to 500 per year. Average weight of the calves at harvest is roughly1,800 lbs.

    Our customers buy our product on line, at retail outlets, and at nicer restaurants. We supply both fresh and frozen Wagyu products. (Fresh is mainly to restaurants and a handful of retail outlets.)

    Our Goals: 1. Properly anticipate customer demand to have proper inventory at different times of the year.
    2. Make buying at "slow" times of the year more attractive/convenient to customers.

    Our Problem: At busy times we run out of certain cuts. At other times, the demand drops, so we freeze products that would otherwise be sold fresh. (Example: in the 2 weeks prior to Memorial Day weekend, our sales spiked . . . and we ran out of a number of products well before the weekend. In the weeks following Memorial Day, sales dropped off more than expected on certain cuts.)

    Biggest Hurdle: Timing our cattle raising/feeding operation to have the proper number of calves ready for harvest each week of the year, so that our butchering schedule matches the demand as much as possible.

    Possible Solutions: We (briefly) considered freezing everything, as managing frozen inventory is much easier than fresh. However, our largest customers are high end restaurants, which require fresh product . . .

    A 2nd partial solution is to improve our supply-demand projections. Although all of us have been in the cattle business for decades, we have only been in the farm-to-table business a bit over 2 years, so we have lots to learn. One thing we know is that demand is not just based on the time of year. The economy and weather are also key factors, and we know that unexpected fluctuations are simply part of the business. We will never be able to precisely predict demand, but we can do better.

    A 3rd partial solution is to better understand the factors consumers consider when deciding WHEN to buy, and seeing if we can adjust our operations accordingly.

    To help us understand what plays into your decision of when to buy, please let me know which of the following factors (or any others) play into the equation:

    1. The weather (for example, do you need a solid forecast before deciding what to buy for an upcoming holiday?;
    2. The time of the year, beyond weather (How much does your consumption of beef vary throughout the year?);
    3. Whether there is a special or sale going on;
    4. Whether the beef is fresh or frozen;
    5. How much space you have in your freezer/frig;
    6. Whether bulk volume discounts are available; and
    7. Whether the meat is what you regularly have, versus something for a special occasion.

    We are trying to identify ways to incentivize customers to buy products at times of the year when they otherwise would not buy. We feel this would limit our being sold out of certain products at certain times. For example, we are thinking of discounting briskets during the winter, in order to avoid filling freezer space. Would discounting briskets 10% during winter months entice purchases. Or would 20% do the trick? Something else?

    Another example is whether to offer locker space. Do many customers only be would like to buy shortly before the date of cooking (due to a lack of freezer space), would they be open to buying at other times if the product could be stored in our freezer?

    We've also thought of offering the sale of quarters and halves more often, but that presents different challenges, and we don't know how many people would be interested.

    In any event, we'd appreciate any insight that you have! Thanks!




    #2
    Other than quality... If buying fresh then weather and time are my major concerns followed by price. When buying frozen my primary concern is price and how much space I have. The only major holidays I am a guaranteed buyer is Mother and Fathers day, 4th of July, Thanksgiving, and Christmas... sales and or some of the challenges we set up here dictate impulse purchases.

    To be clear as a pellet grill owner, I will do a long large smoke regardless of weather... but I won't buy a bunch of steaks or high attention proteins if it's supposed to hammer down rain, I don't have a covered grilling area. Snow I could care less about.
    Last edited by ItsAllGoneToTheDogs; June 12, 2023, 03:26 PM.

    Comment


      #3
      1. The weather (for example, do you need a solid forecast before deciding what to buy for an upcoming holiday?;
      Me personally, no. I plan a cook regardless of weather. Weather only dictates how much clothing I wear while cooking.
      2. The time of the year, beyond weather (How much does your consumption of beef vary throughout the year?);
      I, like probably many here in the Pitmaster Club, am not your average backyard summer griller, so I grill/smoke year round. I might do it more in the summer months, simply out of convenience, but I don't stop in winter.
      3. Whether there is a special or sale going on;
      I definitely stock up when there are sales. I base sale price against my local grocery store and when the sales are cheaper than local, I stock up.
      4. Whether the beef is fresh or frozen;
      If it's whole loins (strip or rib) or packer briskets, then I want fresh if possible. I like to wet age mine roughly 60 days prior to portioning and/or freezing. If it's steaks I don't care, frozen is more handy to me.
      5. How much space you have in your freezer/frig;
      That definitely affects my buying, because it directly mirrors my actual need.
      6. Whether bulk volume discounts are available; and
      Possibly, but that's dependent on my fridge/freezer space and the discount.
      7. Whether the meat is what you regularly have, versus something for a special occasion.​
      This one is hard to say. For me I guess it depends on the situation. If I want a large Wagyu steak for, say, my wife & I's upcoming anniversary, I'll shop for sales on said item, but I prefer to stock up on my regular items like loins and briskets. Hard to predict this, play it by ear.

      Your idea of locker space is interesting. I buy wine from a reseller that I enjoy using and they offer cellaring. A similar principle. I suppose if you guaranteed a shipment speed this would be a good thing. It could be useful for folks who do not have an extra freezer or who want to prebuy when they have extra cash and know their item is only a few days away and won't be 'out of stock' when they want it.

      Comment


        #4
        Quality absolutely. Can't remember the last choice grade cut I bought.
        I live in the bay area/central valley of California and have a covered patio so weather does not concern me much.
        Our meat consumption remains fairly even through out the year.
        Sales never hurt but I buy what I need/want.
        99.5% of my meat purchases are on line so frozen works for me. I very rarely buy meat at the grocery store.
        Freezer space is a factor, and mine is stuffed. But I will sometimes try and time a purchase for a cook to a planned date.
        Bulk does not appeal so much to me. I will buy whole roasts and cut them up though.
        I try to keep cuts I use a lot handy (tri-tips, chucks, flank, brisket, hamburger)
        I do tend to buy somewhat impulsively. Like I will be talky to my family and a cut will come up and I'll say "I'll fix that" and then go buy it.

        Comment


        • SJUfeller
          SJUfeller commented
          Editing a comment
          ofelles Thanks for the reply.

          Since you have lots of experience purchasing on line . . . Do you have preferred packaging - -dry Ice or not? Dissolvable insulation (a bit more expensive, but environmentally "better")?

          Have you had any problems with packages received? Thanks.

        • ofelles
          ofelles commented
          Editing a comment
          Dry ice is not necessary in the winter, but in the summer (or anytime it's warm) yes please.
          The dissolvable insulation is good both for the environment and disposal.
          I don't hesitate ordering in the cool months but come summer I will add dry ice or go for a faster shipping. Click Wagyu and Crowd Cow I have had problems with completely thawed meat. Snake River farms arrives frozen solid as a rock no matter what time of year.

        • SJUfeller
          SJUfeller commented
          Editing a comment
          ofelles Thanks. We originally tried with just ice packs for nearby locations, but now we only ship with dry ice if there is any question at all. Its not worth the risk of a delay in shipping or a box getting left in the sun.

        #5
        1. The weather (for example, do you need a solid forecast before deciding what to buy for an upcoming holiday?
        No , I really do not let the weather have any effect on what I do when it comes to grilling. Plus, if you are ordering online, you really do not have an idea as to what the weather will be. (for the most part)

        2. The time of the year, beyond weather (How much does your consumption of beef vary throughout the year?)
        I eat more beef in the summer. Mostly in the form of ground beef or ribeyes. I make brisket throughout the year. Prime rib at Xmas time and then Tri tip mostly in the summer too, just not as much as a ribeye.

        3. Whether there is a special or sale going on
        I love taking advantage of sales. There is nothing better than a meat sale......well maybe a Meat Raffle, but that is another discussion all together!

        4. Whether the beef is fresh or frozen;
        I always try to buy fresh. However, when it is Wagyu, frozen is just fine for me. (As long as it is cryogenic-vac sealed)

        5. How much space you have in your freezer/frig;
        For Wagyu......I make room. I have a 18.5 CU Ft chest freezer and two regular sized fridge/freezers for meat.

        6. Whether bulk volume discounts are available; and
        I am a fan of bulk discounts. It is a great way to order. Especially with online ordering.

        -20% discount would make me consider buying at any time of the year. I make brisket all year so this would be a great deal for me.

        -Offering locker space really does not appeal to me. I have plenty, and I really do not mind buying frozen. (Given that it is cryogenic-vac sealed)

        Comment


          #6
          We buy 1/2 a local beef every year so I'm not much help with most of your questions. However, I can be enticed to splurge on a special cut if the factors of quality, cut, price, and, of course, whimsy line up. Holidays like Thanksgiving and/or Christmas factor in as well.

          Comment


          • SJUfeller
            SJUfeller commented
            Editing a comment
            Thanks Mike. When we started our business, we did a survey of people that visited the two main retail outlets we work with . . . and I was surprised how few people said they were interested in purchasing 1/4s or 1/2s. In our area, it seems like it has become less and less common over the years. I think there was a spike because of Covid, and but the demand for 1/4s seems to have dropped off again.

          • SJUfeller
            SJUfeller commented
            Editing a comment
            CaptainMike -- I forgot to tag you with the follow up below.

          #7
          I live in Florda were weather is never an issue (active hurricane being an exception) I have a freezer in the garage so I buy mostly fresh when I see it and then vacuum pack and freeze. I don't buy mail order other than Wild Forks. They are located less than an hour away and deliver to my area daily. I've had bad issues with defrosting shippments so I skip anything overnight.

          Comment


          • ItsAllGoneToTheDogs
            ItsAllGoneToTheDogs commented
            Editing a comment
            SJUfeller in my experience the companies who ship with dry ice have been less likely to be thawed out. The ice packs are iffy depending on the time of year. Meat and Bone ships in a insulated case AND the product is in a radiant barrier bag which doubles as advertisement and a cold item bring your own grocery bag (not sure if it was a limited thing but I got one each order)

          • SJUfeller
            SJUfeller commented
            Editing a comment
            ItsAllGoneToTheDogs -- thanks. Follow up -- we use dry ice . .. but it adds a fair amount to our costs. If you had an option that allowed you to either skip dry ice (and save, say, $15.00 on a $200 order), would you pay the extra $15 to get a guarantee that the product arrives totally frozen? (We've had some people say they don't want dry ice, and a bit of thawing does not bother them . . . but we are not currently shipping without dry ice.)

          • ItsAllGoneToTheDogs
            ItsAllGoneToTheDogs commented
            Editing a comment
            SJUfeller because of the heat in my area and the time it takes to ship from most mail order meat places I prefer dry ice, though in the colder months I would consider opting for freeze packs or whatever to save money. Some of the closer to me vendors reliably deliver in 1 day for those I would certainly opt for cheaper shipping and I suspect it would be the same for your customers in a similar distance.

          #8
          Educate and Navigate
          Use what you learn here and elsewhere to Educate your cnline costumers about your stock availability and shortages at certain times of the year, then with their new found knowledge you can navigate them to make choices good for both you and them.
          I hope that makes sense to you.


          Ken

          Comment


            #9
            We raise and sell cattle too, but we are a much smaller operation than you, and do grass fed/fished black Angus. We actually sell them on hoof, the have them processed after sale. Honestly, we don't eat our own product, as we prefer corn fed. I purchase beef in primals/subprimals, then dry age it before vacuume packing and freezing. Typically I buy when there is a good sale. I can say as far as consumption goes, being avid hunters we eat primarily venison around deer season and up into early summer other than Christmas, and st paddy's day unless we get a hankering for a dry aged ribeye.

            Comment


            • Huskee
              Huskee commented
              Editing a comment
              I know, I was only trying to make a joke here.

            • texastweeter
              texastweeter commented
              Editing a comment
              I know, and I was trying to give you a hard time. Huskee me thinks I succeeded.

            • Huskee
              Huskee commented
              Editing a comment
              BANNED

            #10
            There is just my wife and I so we keep a supply of the steaks we like in our freezer. The steaks are purchased from a reliable ranch in Central Texas and they do a very good job. Usually we'll buy 8 of each, her ribeyes and my strip steaks, plus 8-10 chubbs of their ground chuck. We re-order when we get down to 2 of either.

            The ranch uses Fedex for delivery and they do use dry ice, plus styrofoam-type insulated boxes. Another thing about the ranch is that I can telephone them, actually speak with someone who looks up my info, and takes my order verbally. Old fashioned!

            Briskets and roasts are purchased from a butcher shop about 15 miles away. We prefer buying from locals, plus they have a very good BBQ restaurant attached to their building.

            When we get the urge for Prime Rib every few months, I'll check first with the butcher. If they don't have anything that looks good, I'll shop some other local markets. I won't buy rib roasts online as I want to see it first.

            Comment


              #11
              I was raised on a farm-ranch where we raised Charolais cattle. We had our own beef processed. Once I left home it was pretty much supermarket beef. Now that we’ve retired we buy and process our beef from our daughter. She’s a large animal vet. We do buy high end for special occasions and can absolutely be tempted by a sale price. I have no problem with frozen beef. We have no need for locker rental but can see where it would serve apartment and limited space customers . We wish you the best of luck, we pull for the cattlemen here in Texas.

              Comment


                #12
                1 - Only heavy rain will stop me from cookin' outside at any time of the year.

                2 - I do cook out all year. My wife thinks beef is unhealthy, so beef doesn't happen as often as I'd like, but I do buy the best I can find locally when I do want to cook it.

                3 - If I knew far enough in advance, I would start lookin for a sale, but I do buy what I need when I need it.

                4 - I buy fresh locally, but if buying mail order, frozen would not be an issue.

                5 - Freezer space is usually at a premium, but I will buy what I need.

                6 - There is just the two of us, so bulk is not something of interest. (See answer to #5)

                7 - I would buy both.

                I should mention that I have never bought mail order meat, but I will, and it will be from you because you are here and I like the way you present yourself and the fact that you share info about your business. And thank you for your participation here.

                Comment


                • SJUfeller
                  SJUfeller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  RonB. Thank you! I have learned a ton by joining this forum. So many knowledgeable people sharing ideas.

                • RonB
                  RonB commented
                  Editing a comment
                  I actually tried to place an order yesterday, (filets are on sale ), but I will be out of town on the next available delivery date.

                • SJUfeller
                  SJUfeller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Thanks Ron! Check the website again soon! We do put things on sale from time to time.

                  Also, for your wife, Google search "Health Benefits of Wagyu". A number of studies have been done that verify the health benefits of Wagyu . . . "good fat", etc. You could tell her about the Carnivore Diet craze also.

                  People smarter that me can provide better info . . . but there are lots of people now singing the praises of red meat, especially Wagyu.

                #13
                I cook year round but definitely more in the summer. I think a 20% off sale would definitely entice me to buy. Honestly, I’m more likely to buy from you just because you participate here and are honest about your business. I don’t know that the answers you receive here are indicative of what the general population thinks.

                Comment


                • SJUfeller
                  SJUfeller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Red Man. Thanks much. Yes, I am learning countless tips and ideas. Also . . . our target customers are not really the general public. A large percentage of the public (U.S. at least) make their meat product decisions primarily based on price, as long as the product is at least "ok". Our customers are more the folks that really appreciate the value of good beef, and people that are interested in trying something new.

                #14
                I don’t know if this helps, but someone who buys from ranches like you, thought I’d provide my input in hopes that it does help you. I’ll also add this up front - I have stopped ordering mail order beef because I found a local supplier. But I also stopped ordering in the summer months because shipping became unreliable and I didn’t want to worry about beef not getting delivered completely frozen. I live out in the high desert and it gets hot, so I usually would order in the fall/winter/spring because I didn’t have to worry about the temps really.

                But here are the questions/answers for you.

                1. The weather (for example, do you need a solid forecast before deciding what to buy for an upcoming holiday?
                I think I’m more of a spur of the moment kind of cook. And the holidays don’t usually work for me to cook like this, so it’s more of a special occasion event I’d guess. At least for the main three summer holidays - I seem to always have other things going to where I can’t truly BBQ.
                2. The time of the year, beyond weather (How much does your consumption of beef vary throughout the year?
                I have beef in the freezer year round.
                3. Whether there is a special or sale going on
                sales may help me buy something
                4. Whether the beef is fresh or frozen
                The last few times Ive purchased beef, it was from the local place and it comes frozen. I also purchase at Costco and that is not frozen, but I usually separate and vac seal to freeze unless I’ll be cooking it within the next few days. Brisket would be this way from Costco - buying a week or so prior so it’s and then cooking. However, I did purchase a smaller frozen point from the local ranch.
                5. How much space you have in your freezer/frig
                I have a dedicated freezer, second frig as well.
                6. Whether bulk volume discounts are available
                not sure if this is Costco kind of buy or bulk as in number of items - but doesnt sway me.
                7. Whether the meat is what you regularly have, versus something for a special occasion
                I do purchase some beef cuts regularly - flank, skirt, flat iron - something versatile that I can use for all times of cooks (grill, wok/stir fry). Tri-tip is also something I have on hand at all times. I also buy a rib subprimal once or twice a year and steak out, vac seal into individual steaks and freeze. At times I’ll dry age this as well - so that’s kind of on hand, but also special occasion.

                Comment


                  #15
                  We buy a half beef and half hog each year. The farm we buy from has set delivery dates. We put a down payment on our meat and select a delivery date/time at the time of purchase. I usually purchase a 2 to 3 months ahead so I know they won't be sold out when I'm ready. The farm has 4 to 5 delivery locations (Walmarts etc.) along an interstate corridor. They pull in and it's a swarm 4 to 8 customers getting their deliveries in the span of about 15 minutes then the farm is on to the next stop.

                  Comment

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