Beef Prices keep on climbing

[jfmorris]

I was at Sam's Club yesterday, where I was at first astounded by a case full of brisket - more than I had ever seen before there, along with pichana and other cuts I don't usually see. I was even MORE astounded that the briskets, at $5.99 for prime and $5.89 for Angus Choice, were all HUGE ones. They all were priced at $150 to $200. Too rich for my blood! Last time I was in there and saw a chuck roll, something that used to be almost as cheap as brisket, it was $8 or $9 a pound. For chuck roll! Chuck roasts are expensive too!

I noticed a lady and her 9-10 year old daughter perusing the meat case, and overheard the mother tell the daughter they could not have the steak the daughter wanted, because they couldn't afford it - sad. A middle aged man was pushing his older father in a wheel chair to the meat case, where they were in shock at the beef prices as well I think.

I ended up going around the corner to Publix and buying two Boston butts that were BOGO (per pound), putting their normally high prices lower than Sam's. Two 9 pound butts for $15 or so each I can do.

Right now I think Fresh Market, where I recently got some choice bone-in NY strips that were good for $7.99 a pound, is where I will be shopping for specials.

[realdocBBQ]

I noticed a lady and her 9-10 year old daughter perusing the meat case, and overheard the mother tell the daughter they could not have the steak the daughter wanted, because they couldn't afford it - sad.

Sounds like my wife following me around Costco. lol

Funny, not funny.

[bbqLuv]

But that is usually me complaining.

[texastweeter]

Aren't meat packers great...

[bbqLuv]

Meat packers are “grating my nerves.”

[Spinaker]

I am running for office and the only thing I am pushing is brisket at $2.49/lb again!

It is a shame, I saw a raw of beef ribs the other day for $95! The cheapest set of ribs was $70-something dollars. C'mon man!

I do not pretend to understand the ins and outs of the meat packing industry, even though that is where I make a majority of my money selling anti-coagulants to many of these plants. (Creekstone, Smithfield, JBS, Darling, Cargill, Hormel) That being said, the kill rates at these plants are fluctuating up and down, it seems much more than normal. I ask my customers why.........they do not seem to fully understand either. It seems to be a lack of supply coming into the plants, but that is just a third hand observation.

I hope it all changes soon. Maybe I really am getting old.......I wish we could just go back to the way things used to be.

[Spinaker]

Great insight. Thank you! Any idea why cattle numbers are down. Price of feed? Palmetto Pirate

[Duanessmokedmeats]

Spinaker If what I read is true, they say the drought is hurting them.

[Palmetto Pirate]

Drought has been an issue you have to have pasture capacity drought conditions make buying feed and hay an expensive option. Drought limits the carrying capacity so the herd has to be sold down to what you can feed. Many after the drought get out or it takes time to build the herd numbers back up. A lot of pasture has been developed into real estate too. All across America Agriculture is under pressure of higher labor cost land values that make Agriculture tough to stay in instead of selling.

[Andrrr]

I always used to walk by the beef cases at Costco to look but I rarely do anymore because I was appalled at the prices. Thankfully I have my 1/4 steer every year so while I may not get all the cuts I want I do get my fill of steaks and roasts.

[LA Pork Butt]

I picked up a Boston Butt @ $.97 a pound. It is hard for beef to compete with that.

[yakima]

Serious drought in Nebraska. Drier than any living person has seen. Farmers are holding off on corn planting. Pivots are running pre-planting, which is unusual.

[Donw]

A very close near future threat to beef prices is the new world screwworm where the latest case has been found in Nuevo León, Mexico which is about 62 miles from the Texas/Mexico border. The only operational production facility for sterile screwworm flies is in Panama. The closest release facilities are in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Mexico and Tampico, Mexico, located further south in Mexico to give the US much protection. The new production facility being built in Texas at Moore Air Base, Texas is just breaking ground after its need was identified years ago. When the infestation crosses the border hold on to your hats as prices rise. Just my 2¢.

[SmokingPat]

Wait a minute. We went from filet mignon, to ribeye, to brisket, to chuck eye ... now we're at the 'eating worms' stage? I'm going vegetarian (but don't let the grain farmers hear that!)

[Jerod Broussard]

$4.96/lb for the Select and Choice bin at Wolly World. That's about $37/lb to do good at the BBQ Joint.

[Michael_in_TX]

I picked up a Boston Butt @ $.97 a pound. It is hard for beef to compete with that.

I've also noticed that pork prices are steady or have dropped quite a bit, especially when they are on sale. Tejas BBQ at last year's Texas Meat-Up showed us the way: Pork Belly Brisket.

Cows are so 20th century.

[Michael_in_TX]

I've started participating in a weird ritual at my local HEB. (Okay, that really does make it sound like we are cult.) I'll often shop Tuesday mornings, which is when mine usually has their new cryovac'ed stuff out in the bins.

Invariably there'll be two or three middle-to-older aged gentlemen gathered around the brisket bin just looking....forlornly at the briskets. I'll often make a point to walk up next to them and say something like "Will these prices ever come down?" or "If I sold my car I could afford that" and it always strikes up a quick but fun conversation. (Actually ended up giving one guy a quick lesson on how pellet grills work.)

Another time I saw an HEB meat person placing briskets in the bin and I walked up and asked, "Do you think HEB will ever put these on sale again?" and he literally scoffed at me.

[Uncle Bob]

You shop at HEB....your are a cultist...

[58limited]

Our Walmart (and some of the other stores) has a discount bin for meat about to reach its sell-by date, that is where I look now.

Due to several factors the cattle herds are at a 50 or more year low; until this changes - which is mostly dependent on the weather but on disease issues as well - then prices will remain high.

At this point for the same money I can buy Elk and Bison meat online when its on sale. Gonna be more aggressive about taking time to go deer hunting the year.

[DavidNorcross]

I do not understand it all either. From what I read it is a combination of lack of inventory or herds, drought and now fuel that is causing all of this. But I really do not know who to believe anymore.

[Finster]

All I can say is….

[Jerod Broussard]

Our plant is running 1,319,00 chickens this week. That is max capacity for 5 days.

[SmokingPat]

Poultry is a frequent visitor to my freezer. With the cost of beef, I'm glad I'm not picky.
Unfortunately, some are overstaying their welcome, and I need to select a recipe to evict them.

[SmokingPat]

@Jerod - Since you work in the meat industry, can you tell me why I can often find ground turkey at the store, but never ground chicken? It's not a big deal for me, just curious.
Sometime this week, I'll be making turkey meatloaf with the good stuff - 15% fat. (Sorry, 85/15.)

[58limited]

My friend has a grassfed farm-to-fork operation near Austin, Tx. His beef averages $7.79/lb right now (hanging weight). Typical yield in the freezer is about 125-150lbs which makes the price around $9.60 - $12/lb or so after processing. A quarter will average between $1200-$1800 depending on size, about 45% will be ground beef but the rest will be steaks and roasts.

When I order I always take the offered bones, makes great stock.

EDIT: My friend messaged me and said they are sold out through autumn.

https://wattersonranch.com/