Fried crickets on the school menu, milk made from fly larvae and mealworm bolognese for dinner? These are the environmentally friendly meals we can look forward to. Bon appetit!
I hear what you are saying but it doesn't change the trend that the chart is showing, truncated or not. We're a long way from running out of beef but at what point does the price drive you to chicken or pork or bugs exclusively ???
I get a daily industry newsletter and production is at decades old low. While drought has eased in some areas, not all have improved. Biggest issues are with feed cost and rancher uncertainty, plus, even if optimism where higher, it takes two-ish years to go from calf to butcher, so there's no quick turnaround.
Appreciate the insight and didn’t consider the extra long time to see true trend in changes. But it makes sense as cows don’t grow fast like dandelions!!
This is propaganda in the form of data manipulation to make people think that beef is in decline. People accept it as fact, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The people who want beef to go away will no doubt make every attempt to hurt the supply chain and otherwise artificially raise the price, causing more people to believe the news, while the higher pricing makes more people walk away. Last step is to start closing facilities as consumption falls.
leave the hat on, it may protect you. There are many factors involved, most of them are not market driven. Buy that brisket now as I feel after the 2024 election it will be a luxury.
Here's the net result of both a decline in total beef output, increase in beef consumption and the price you pay at the pump. One of the up and coming barbeque joints in El Paso Texas, Smokin' Joe's Pit BBQ (you may have seen him on YouTube as well), recently closed his truck operation. The main reason why was the overall cost of food and all of the supplies and effort it takes in its preparation. Since the pandemic this has been the bane of the restaurant industry as a whole.
I've written before how many Texas Pitmasters have given up on brisket and consider it a loss leader. Charging more than $32/pound is unsustainable and preparing, cooking and selling it for less is just not possible. Unless these fringe bbq places like the truck operations can expand into brick and mortar stores, widen their menu and sell alcohol, they may end up as the dinosaurs of the business.
I wish Joe success, his 'cue is among my favorite on YouTube.
I too saw that yesterday, I subscribe to and enjoy Joe's YT channel, and feel sorry for his situation. That said, after I sold my business, a number of my former "competitors" hit me up for consulting. Listening between the lines, so to speak, to Joe, he made many of the classic business failure mistakes that lead to many forms of small business not making it, not just high cost of goods sold. It's way too multi-faceted to discuss effectively here, but succeeding at small business is hard.
Yea I agree with you Uncle Bob there is more to the story. He also mentioned trying to have too expanded a menu right out of the gate which further complicated his venture. That said, Aaron Franklin, LaBarbecue, Leroy & Lewis and many others too lengthy to list all started with food trucks or trailers. It can be done but the margins are tight.
Purely anecdotally, but it seems like the competition in terms of the number of BBQ vendors/restaurants has been way up over the last 10 years. Though, maybe this is a Midwestern thing, and Texas has always been that way?
I talked with Redbird and 1701 BBQ here and they say that they may try and change sources for brisket since they are charged nearly $9/lb for prime - that is with a commercial account. To compare: I can get wagyu brisket at my local HEB for that price. I pointed out to them that Snow's BBQ supposedly uses select briskets and their briskets are some of the best I've had. I mentioned that maybe they can at least change to choice grade. Redbird buys from Creekstone Farms - why? Is it a prestige thing I wonder? They don't advertise it (and how many people outside true BBQ snobs know who Creekstone Farms is anyway) so why pay so much? Prime brisket at HEB is $5/lb.
I definitely rely on sales when I buy plus I've shifted my cuisine to healthier choices due to a food poisoning incident last year that affected my liver (I'm fine now and NO! it wasn't my cooking). Also, I have lots of hunter friends who keep me supplied with venison so I don't have to buy beef that often.
I did choose to buy some primal roasts for dry aging from Creekstone Farms because their prices dropped below HEB's prices but that is really the only beef I've bought in months.
I have tried prime briskets from members mark and there seems to be more fat, and so less edible product. I get that the flat can get dry, especially if it is held a while; but getting tough meat right is what makes good bbq good… right?
Leroy & Lewis in Austin tried switching to beef cheek and made it their specialty. They only serve brisket on Saturday to limit the cost exposure. Unfortunately what they then learned about beef cheek is the amount of waste is staggering. I buy mine from a local butcher and I've never actually weighed the cull but it's easily 40-45% of the volume. Things are not getting better fast !!!
Scotch: Current favorite- The Arran (anything by them), Glenmorangie 12yr Lasanta, sherry cask finished. The Balvenie Double Wood, also like Oban 18yr, and The Glenlivet Nadurra (Oloroso sherry cask finished) among others. Neat please.
About meReal name: Aaron
Location: Farwell, Michigan - near Clare (dead center of lower peninsula).
Occupation:
Healthcare- Licensed & Registered Respiratory Therapist (RRT) at MyMichigan Health, a University of Michigan Health System.
Well they say this will be a 37-yr high (or something like that) for cicada hatchings...so if you're interested in bugs you can have your fill for free.
my dogs love those... I think it's the doggy version of pop rocks... they buzz in your mouth and when that finally gets boring the get a satisfying crunch
What's old is new again. Humans were eating bugs looooonnng before they were raising/eating cattle.
I'm sure there's some good cicada/air fryer recipes out there. Sprinkle some of your favorite rub on them.
Winner winner, cicada dinner!
Well, I guess without data on beef demand or consumption, it’s hard to state there’s a problem.
If beef consumption is massively higher than supply,
and there is a gap, prices should skyrocket and beef producers and restaurants should be printing money, beyond simply inflationary considerations.
Since that isn’t the case, I would guess that consumers are considering substitutes for beef such as chicken, pork, lamb, turkey etc. and buying those, or simply eating meat fewer times per week than they did in the past due to social changes.
I think we’d only have to be concerned about adding more bugs to our diet if prices for all food substitutes spiked and bugs were the cheapest alternative. Thankfully, we still have choices.
If the problem is that beef producers are struggling due to assuming demand will go up every year and that’s not the case, then they need to do some thinking. We can either focus on an area of beef production that is growing (Thor’s hammers?!), undertake a campaign to convince consumers to add more beef to their diet, or figure out ways to reduce the price of beef to make it more competitive with other meat alternatives.
The other thing that comes to mind is maybe this reflects a change in demand for quality meat. Maybe demand for choice has plummeted and demand for prime and wagyu has skyrocketed. We don’t know.
Last edited by STEbbq; February 29, 2024, 07:29 AM.
Here is a useful site for data, though their predictive conclusions may be suspect: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...onsumption-us/ While beef is still in high demand, pork has tailed off over the past decade by mid 20 % range, but producers are slow to react, likely resistance to change.
Producers aren't making money - at least not small scale ones. The few folks I know have been losing money on beef. I think demand is down.
The two I know that are doing ok, are 1) raising more specialized cattle, and 2) selling directly to customers.
Nocona Meat Market - in Nocona Texas - raises, butchers, and sells all of their own meat. Complete vertical integration. The beef is really good, and always fresh. But they might not have the cut you want. Each cow only has so many ribeyes.
My wife and I have switched to buying chicken, pork, and beef directly from the producers. We get an excellent product at a fair price, and know that it's being produced ethically. We haven't dropped our consumption, we've just changed suppliers.
Thanks Uncle Bob . I don’t have access to much but this chart speak to some of the issues I have raised. Per capita consumption of beef looks to be down.
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