Beef prices are at an all-time high. Why it's gotten so expensive.

[yakima]

Family just sold several hundred yearlings, headed to a feedlot. $3.47/lb, 917 pounds. Pasture raised. Excellent price, from a producer's standpoint.

[Johnny Booth]

We stopped buying junk-food, rarely order-in, or go out. Plenty of $ for real food. We buy prime when we can get a decent cut. The quality of choice seems to have dropped. No room for a 1/2 or 1/4; we usually go for roasts and cut them into steaks (NY, Rib Eye), then skirt, brisket, chuck, or ribs. We get a 10lb tube of 80/20 and break it up for burgers, meatballs, etc….Not going to stop, don’t care what price. Beef is it for me.

[yakima]

USDA Choice apparently has 3 categories. I have ordered the top grade of choice. Young lady at the counter had no clue, but the guy in back knew immediately what I meant.

[Murdy]

"Top Choice" a/k/a "house prime" or "no roll" -- basically prime that the USDA inspector graded as choice for some reason. If you have a source of meat you can trust, it's a great source of quality meat.

[randy.56]

yakima I never heard that before. But looked it up. Still learning. Thanks



Yes, USDA Choice beef is further divided into three categories: Upper 2/3 Choice (also known as Choice and High-Choice), Middle 1/3 Choice, and Lower 1/3 Choice.
These distinctions are based primarily on the amount of marbling (intramuscular fat) within the beef, according to the 1855 Black Angus Beef FAQ.

• Upper 2/3 Choice: This category represents the top end of the Choice grade, having the most marbling within the Choice range, bordering on Prime quality. Some programs like Certified Angus Beef have their own specifications that overlap with or even exceed those of upper Choice or Prime beef.
• Middle 1/3 Choice: This represents the average amount of marbling for Choice beef.
• Lower 1/3 Choice: This category has the least amount of marbling within the Choice range.

Understanding these categories can help consumers make more informed decisions about the beef they purchase, particularly when seeking a balance between tenderness, juiciness, flavor, and price.

[surfdog]

If I’m not purchasing prime…my next option is upper 2/3. If they don’t know what I’m talking about…I’m not going back. Quite often, around here anyway, upper 2/3 can be a great option. Damn near close to prime but at a discount.

One of the markets that I shop at has “Certified Angus Beef.” That has ALWAYS been in the upper 2/3 or better range and has never failed to impress. A little more than “regular” choice perhaps, but not enough to stop me from getting it.

[TobyB]

Most people buy meat from super markets and places like Costco and Sam's Club. You're lucky if you live in an area with a real butcher's shop. I do not doubt that the grades you indicated exist, but why aren't retailers required to include them on their labeling? Basically, the customer is on his own to go through what is offered for sale and judge the quality himself. This negates the usefulness of a grading system in my view.

[surfdog]

The Prime NY strips that I purchased this week were like $22 & change per pound. We don’t eat a lot of steaks, so I don’t mind splurging a bit now & then. Besides, it was still less than if we had gone out…and better as well.

Do I wish it was less? Certainly…but I also wish the petrol was 99 cents a gallon as well. ;-)

[Uncle Bob]

From a trade article posted today:

Herd it through the grapevine: Cargill joins expansion chorus…
Frank Fuhrig on 8/12/2025

Cargill has no plans to close any beef harvesting facilities despite the lingering historic low U.S. cattle herd numbers, Jarrod Gillig, senior vice president of Cargill's North American beef business, told the Reuters financial news service.

Packer margins plummeted for the week ending August 1 to an estimated loss of $316.28 per head, the largest weekly loss since Sterling Marketing began tracking data in 1988. Reduced slaughter numbers — just 535,000 head processed — contributed to continued capacity concerns.

Despite the currently grim supply situation, Cargill is the latest beef industry major to flag hints of a herd turnaround, though the process will take years. In fact, Cargill announced plans in June to invest nearly $90 million in automation and technology at its Fort Morgan, Colo., beef plant over the next several years.

"It's not overwhelmingly glaring that, 'Hey we're starting to rebuild the cow herd,' but I think there are quite a few signals," Gillig told Reuters.

The comments follow last week’s outright declaration by Tyson Foods President Donnie King, in a call with Wall Street analysts following the company’s third-quarter earnings report: “We think that herd retention has begun.”

King noted that first-half cow slaughter was down 16%. “That's an early indicator of heifer retention beginning,” he said. “In terms of beyond that, we think herd rebuilding will begin in earnest in 2026.”

But the process will drag through “the next couple of years after that, … let's call it 2028 is when we see herd rebuild.” Tyson did pare back its beef capacity late last year.

In February, JBS USA announced plans to invest $200 million in expansions of its beef production facilities in Cactus, Texas, and Greeley, Colo., while America’s Heartland Packing began operations Thursday in April at a new, $800 million beef plant in Warren County, Mo. A building permit was issued this month for Producer Owned Beef's planned $253 million beef plant in Amarillo, Texas.


If this signals a turnaround we're looking at 3 more years of tight markets at minimum.

[yakima]

In the mists of time I seem to remember that herd rebuilding takes 7 years to impact markets. 9 months to produce a heifer (assuming that one already has a cow), 2 years to grow her up and breed her, 9 months to a calf, which takes another close to 2 years to go to slaughter. That adds up to 5 1/2 years or so. If half a calf crop is heifers, and about half of the heifers get culled directly to the feedlot, one can see why it takes time.

My nephew has moved to AI for breeding, for the most part. At one time he had over 50 bulls and hated their cost. Since at least the 1950's have always run purebred bulls with the commercial cows. Can't speak to the time from 1883 to the 50's.

My brother has been keeping feedlots full, so is able to sell yearlings at high prices, since no room for them at home.

[Donw]

Some more information on the screwworm infestation. A human being in Maryland has been diagnosed and treated for screwworms after returning from a trip to Guatemala. The USDA has announced reactivating a sterile screwworm production lab in Texas. The lab was last activated over 50 years ago and it take 2-3 years to get it back up and producing.

Unfortunately: “The sole operating plant is in Panama City and can produce a maximum of 100 million sterile screwworm flies each week. The USDA has estimated that 500 million flies would need to be released weekly to push the fly back to the Darien Gap, the stretch of rainforest between Panama and Colombia.”

On this front it might take awhile for the screwworm threat to the US, and beef imports, to be curtailed.

[acorgihouse]

the accidental optimist in me is thankful I have the garage freezer loaded...

[bep35]

Just bought 1/3 of a 1/3 of an Angus/Piedmontese beef. Shared the other 2/3 with the kid's families. Price after kill & processing was $7.50/pound. Not a bad overall price for steaks, roasts, ribs, brisket, and hamburger.

[Donw]

I still, decades and decades later, associate Pierre as a steak town. Had to spend several months there way back when and there was a steakhouse down by the railroad tracks which was inexpensive and fit our per diem budget quite comfortably. Maybe not Prime or Choice graded but my group ate there almost every evening and enjoyed every meal there.

[bep35]

Cattleman's Steakhouse is a local favorite today. Affordable and the only place I eat steak other than at home.

[UncleSpike]

The cost of raising beef has climbed dramatically in the past few years. I just had a cow butchered that we raised from a calf - I think she was about 300 lbs when we got her. I estimate that with the winter feed and all costs included we are at $5.50 per lb. Three years ago that same cost was under $3.00 / lb.

[Donw]

Gift article from the NYT concerning Tyson beef production shutdown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/business/tyson-lexington-nebraska-closing.html?unlocked_article_code=1.3E8.9vbT.xi1Z3nQ2s2Hw&smid=url-share

[Michael_in_TX]

I only do a brisket about once or twice a year. I skipped this summer's due to prices. I still want to do my traditional pastrami brisket for our anniversary in January, but I also really want to do a traditional Texas-style one, too.

It then occurred to me....why not both? For me, pastrami is the flat part of the brisket, not so much the point. I think I'll get a brisket, do the flat as pastrami and the point as Texas-style! It seems so obvious now.

[J-Melt]

We just got another whole beef to split 4 ways that we are currently driving back to Chicago. Got it for $2.42/ pounds live weight($3.85/pound hanging). Found out that the farmer is earning so little that this is one of his last and he is done raising cattle

[jfmorris]

Wowsa! I wish I had freezer space for a pickup load of beef! Enjoy!

Sorry to hear the farmer is going out of business though. Those are lower than the prices I hear around here. My son in law just got in on a 1/4 of beef, splitting a side with his next-door neighbor. I'll have to ask what it was per pound, but THINK he said $5-6.

[Andrrr]

I get mine tomorrow!

[J-Melt]

On the upside is that my buddy who is has been the middleman for my beef acquisition said that he may need to increase his herd so he can keep supplying us.

[yakima]

J-Melt, you must have access to a commercial locker for storage. My mother had one. I have never been inclined to buy a whole or part critter.

I read somewhere recently that average herd size in USA is 47 head. My brother was surprised that it is so high, (He is a guy who feeds thousands of fats, and runs cattle on several thousand acres.)

In my view, food security in the USA is as important as fuel self sufficiency and manufacturing capability.

[J-Melt]

Nah, I split it with 3 other families, so really I got a quarter beef. The one we got in March was split 5 ways and produced way less meat than normal (56% yield to hanging weight). My deep freezer had gotten quite bare and was in need of a major filling.

[Michael_in_TX]

HEB just rolled out their prices for Prime prime rib. $25-$28/lb.

One of these years I'll do a prime rib again. That year is not this year.

[Oak Smoke]

I remember as a young man raising a family hamburger helper was a staple at our house now it would be Sunday dinner. I’m afraid now we’d be eating a lot of chicken leg quarters.