I bought a 2.8lb pack of ground beef the other day for smash burgers. The regular price here for ground chuck is 6.78/lb. Thankfully they had a 'manager's special' pack that expired that day and it was half off, in other words, normal price.
Beef is high but has its own excellent flavor that we keep going back to. We currently buy any meats almost exclusively on sale and use fresh or vac pack and freeze.
The wild cards are manager special’s marked for sale that day or maybe next day. Those also get used immediately or vac packed and frozen. We actually keep more frozen inventory on than I did in previous years.
Here is a 50% off manager’s special from last fall on the PBC. Something I might not even consider if not shopping for a deal:
DaveD funny you should mention chuck roast. That was the focus of my writeup. What was once considered "poor man's brisket" is now fetching a premium price. In fact, here in PGH, the price difference between a chuck roast and a brisket flat is just pennies per pound.
There are few, if any, other cuts of meat that give a pitmaster bragging rights the way a perfectly smoked brisket can. It's been a favorite among BBQ pitmasters from time immemorial because it lends itself well to traditional outdoor cooking techniques and "low 'n slow" smoking. For generations, brisket was inexpensive because it's a tough, hard-working muscle from the chest of the cow or steer. It takes a long time to cook because the fibrous muscle, heavy connective tissue, and internal fat need time to soften up or render down, making the meat tender and juicy. Sometime in the early 1990's, however, brisket became popular with home cooks and the price rose accordingly. Price-conscious backyard pitmasters turned to a substitute--boneless chuck roast--which became known as "poor man's brisket".
For the better part of 12 years, as demonstrated in the graph below, chuck prices stayed below $3/lb retail while brisket flats rose above $6/lb. The price relative to brisket stayed competitive for almost 15 years, after which it began to spike upwards. Looking at the most recent data available from the CPI, and adjusting for 2025 dollars, chuck prices have almost doubled from $4.40/lb in January 2000 to $8.28/lb in February of 2025. (As a point of reference, Giant Eagle is currently selling brisket flats for $8.99/lb--so the two cuts are just pennies apart in price now.) Interestingly, this drastic spike coincided with an increase in the popularity of backyard cooking equipment, including the relatively inexpensive pellet smokers which made the hobby more egalitarian. The spike in chuck prices also seems to correlate with an overall increase in the price of cattle during the same 25-year period, as wholesale cattle prices rose from $128 per hundredweight (cwt) in January 2000 to $218/cwt by December 2024.
Two articles I found about this topic (Nerdwallet, 05/14/2025; Drovers.com, 04/29/2025) relate a host of reasons explaining the price hike in beef. Droughts in cattle raising areas lead to lower grass yields which can lead to lower weight cattle, diminishing supply. Additionally, the cost of production has increased due to both the price of grain used to finish fattening the cattle as well as the rising interest rates on operating loans, which are very common in the industry. Ranchers, therefore, are fielding smaller herds. All of this has shifted the supply curve to the left and, according to Nerdwallet, US cattle inventory is the lowest it's been since 1951. Prices have risen commensurately. According to everything we read in chapter three of our textbook, this price hike should have led to a decrease in the quantity demanded which would lead to a surplus of beef, at which point ranchers would have to lower prices to find an equilibrium point at which supply equals demand and consumers and suppliers are satisfied. Here's the kicker, though: the drop in quantity demanded has not happened. Drovers quotes an economist saying, “The consumer, while they may be cutting back in some other areas, is still supporting the box beef price pretty well." The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that Americans are on track to consume nearly 29 billion pounds of beef in 2025, which represents a mere half a percent decline from 2024. I looked for articles that would explain this anomalous relation in the price and demand of beef, but I came up empty. The explanation may be as simple as "Americans just love their beef."
For the cattle inventory to expand, the industry needs to be profitable. If demand cannot remain strong at these price levels, prices will fall, and profitability will stand in the way of meaningful growth.
Prices for products like ground beef and steak are high right now because drought, high grain prices and rising interest rates made cattle farming a costly endeavor in recent years. Now, tariffs add new pressure on prices.
Between the popularity of high protein diets, and the demand for preprepared meals among mostly younger people, I wonder what impact that has. In your info search was there any detailed evaluation of a change in delivery channels. Retail markets are likely the biggest, but have restaurant demand gone up or down, dedicated butcher shops and so forth?
Uncle Bob I didn't look for that information, but it's a great question and I'll see if I can find an answer next weekend when I'm done with all of my coursework.
This probably explains why chuck typically costs more than round these days (I just looked at the Wild Fork website, and comparable round was $1 cheaper per pound than chuck), but round really isn't suitable for smoking. My recollection, from when I worked for a butcher in the 80s and 90s, was that round roasts tended to run a dollar or so higher per pound.
I have a Hasty Bake that I won right here on Amazing Ribs ! Also have a pellet grill but the HB is the best for daytime BBQ. Like my Thermoworks chef alarm and heat resistant gloves.
We sold our commercial calves(hfrs and steers) early this month, (not registered) for $1 more per lb than last year. Farmers culled heavily during the drought and now high priced feed so there is a shortage of quality animals .
It takes carrying over the cow until she is old enough to be bred ,has her calf (9 months) then another 8 months or so to grow to 6-7 hundred lbs all while feeding the mama and the calf starts to eat feed too, then there health care. We do a lot of that. Ours bring a premium because they are so healthy and slick. We keep the registered bull calves to grow out for our annual registered bull sale and the registered hfrs for herd replacement. We sell the commercial only to an order buyer that can handle that amount of calves . It's my understanding that they go to a feedlot in the midwest.
We have a feed wagon that I load it with a skid steer using DDG, crushed corn, soybean pellets, and cotton seed adding the minerals to that also . Prices on each of those commodities have went up dramatically so the profit is still slim even with the prices you pay at the market.
We have about 170 registered and commercial cows combined and then about 20 replacement hfrs. We usually sell about 50 registered bulls per year- all of their mamas were artificially bred by us out of a liquid nitrogen tank. They get 2 chances and then are replaced by the up and coming hfrs. We use our selected registered bulls in the commercial herd.. My bil searches for docility, milk production ( for good calves) and all sort of traits to improve the herd . This is just a family farm .
My local Sams price is high, but what ya going to do? Go to get your freeze stocked up and not come home with your favorites? I watch other stores prices but it seems their quality is not as Sams. Been skunked many times buying at other places, then upset with a tough / stringy piece of meat. Many not so much with chicken. To save $1.00 to $.50 a lb. Frustrating prices these days, and will not get any better according to all the info you put together.. Good job doing research.
Meat Per LB
Ribeye Choice $15.98
Prime $19.98
Choice chuck $6.78
Tri tip choice $9.78
88/12 Ground beef $4.98
Chicken wings $2.77
Baby backs $3.28
Brisket-Prime $4.98
Choice $4.28
Filet - Prime $24.28
Choice $19.48
PGH_RAM not many beef farms in Florida Then again our Pork prices in NC are sometimes higher than some random low hog production state so who really knows...
There are so many variables. Drought, supply and demand, cost of feed, etc. I guess if folks stop buying beef the price will drop but for me that is a decision that I would rather not make…
Scotch: Current favorite- The Arran (anything by them), Glenmorangie 12yr Lasanta, sherry cask finished. The Balvenie Double Wood, also like Oban 18yr, and The Glenlivet Nadurra (Oloroso sherry cask finished) among others. Neat please.
About meReal name: Aaron
Location: Farwell, Michigan - near Clare (dead center of lower peninsula).
Occupation:
Healthcare- Licensed & Registered Respiratory Therapist (RRT) at MyMichigan Health, a University of Michigan Health System.
A little sticker shock when we had guests over Saturday and I went to get some burger for smash burgers. $7.09/lb chuck, and $7.99/lb for round.Thankfully they also had some packs labeled "Ground Beef 81-19" which was only $4.99/lb and it tasted wonderful in smash burgers.
In all seriousness, this is now a very real thing.
I think I have these figures right from a presentation given by one of our professors of business:
As of May, the number of "slaughterable" cattle that exist in the United States is the lowest it has been since 1950.
This is not expected to recover until at earliest spring of 2026 or late fall 2027.
Typically, the US makes up any shortage by importing beef from Mexico. This will possibly be severely curtailed due to the current tariffs/trade war, driving our prices higher.
My takeaway is simply this: remember the USDA grade is the grade of the animal, not the cut of beef. If you find a nicely marbled brisket labeled as Choice in the HEB bin for $3.96/lb. GRAB IT.
No Mexican cattle due to the screw worm infestation. US Secretary of Agriculture issued, just last week, a closure of all imports of cattle through our southern border due to active screw worms in cattle being detected in Veracruz State which is north of the sterile fly release area.
I visited a friend this past weekend. He owns a grass-fed beef operation. I bought a really big sirloin, a big bone-in ribeye, four large tenderized cutlets, two packs of meaty soup bones, and a 5lb bag of fat for tallow. I paid $60.00, probably got a buddy discount.
He was telling me that a neighbor just sold a cow or steer (I don't remember which) at the auction barn for $4000 - prices are indeed high right now.
This definitely has me set on getting another 1/2 or 1/4 when my current 1/5 runs out. The meat has been incredible, and even with a lower yield, it feels worth what we paid for it.
I have a Hasty Bake that I won right here on Amazing Ribs ! Also have a pellet grill but the HB is the best for daytime BBQ. Like my Thermoworks chef alarm and heat resistant gloves.
I read today that roughly 85% of the ground beef purchased in the US is raised here. I agree with Michael_in_TX gonna be a while. Does not really seem like Mexico is an option and only 5% of our meat comes from Brazil pre tariffs. Like others have said its time to fill those freezers.
Scotch: Current favorite- The Arran (anything by them), Glenmorangie 12yr Lasanta, sherry cask finished. The Balvenie Double Wood, also like Oban 18yr, and The Glenlivet Nadurra (Oloroso sherry cask finished) among others. Neat please.
About meReal name: Aaron
Location: Farwell, Michigan - near Clare (dead center of lower peninsula).
Occupation:
Healthcare- Licensed & Registered Respiratory Therapist (RRT) at MyMichigan Health, a University of Michigan Health System.
I almost took a picture of the chuck roast price at my local grocery store, 7.89/ pound for regular old chuck roast. I didn't because the meat guy was stocking stuff near me and I didn't want to to be weird.
Then again our Pork prices in NC are sometimes higher than some random low hog production state so who really knows...
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