I wrote about this issue a few weeks ago for my Macroeconomics course. Beef is breaking the Law of Demand: prices keep going up, but demand is as high as ever.
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There’s just not a great substitute for beef. Have a ground turkey burger and see what I mean. As long as people can work it into their budget they will continue to buy it. It used to be that we could buy cheap cuts of beef to smoke low and slow to make them incredible. Now even the tuff cuts are unreasonable.-
Richard Chrz I will if i have to, but I stand by my words. A smoke-grilled turkey burger, taken off while still juicy, with double provolone, sautéed onions & shrooms, and a toasted bun is a force. Gotta try it. I've seen your skills, and if you haven't made a good turkey burger, you got to try again cuz I know you can definitely do it if I can! -
Huskee im with Richard Chrz on this one, take your turkey burger and go sit in the corner.
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I've been eating a lot more game meat in the past few years to save money and I only buy beef that is marked down.Comment
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There may be demand but the other side of the equation is supply. In 2024 the US inventory of beef was at a 73 year low. The latest USDA forecast shows a further decline until later this year or the first part of 2026. Personally I’m skeptical of any optimism shown in the forward looking forecast for a number of reasons.
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This. Drought conditions a couple years ago caused a lot, historic, of herd culling. Even if the industry wanted to rebuild it takes years. Problems with chicken supplies can recover in weeks/months because of shorter gestation and faster growth, but not beef. It takes time and comparatively considerable resources. -
So the year I graduated there was a much bigger production than now. In 1974, the US population, to be around 212,532,000. 2024 is approximately 341.2 million people. This figure represents an increase over the 2020 census count of 331.4 million. Where the beef? -
In the West the government feeds all of the wolves they have "re-wilded" more than as much beef as the wolves can eat. It's unsustainable.
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If people stopped buying so much I'd have more yellow tags.Comment
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I remember folks here at the Pit with experience on the livestock side of the industry warning of this very thing a few years ago when herds were being culled owing to severe drought. Those kinds of pressures aren't likely to change for the forseeable future, except for the worse. Never been a better time to support any local sources we may have for many groceries.Comment
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Agreed 100%. We try to buy beef halves or quarters from a rancher we know who operates about an hour outside of Pittsburgh. It's a 100% grass operation and his cattle frequently win in their category at fairs and shows. He actually hasn't raised his prices in two years because he says his price of production hasn't gone up. We won't be able to buy from him for about a year, though, because my wife got downsized and I'm on the hook for tuition at Pitt. If we want beef, it'll be sales or Costco.
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We get a half every year, except last we didn’t. This year we’re signed up for a half even though we don’t really need it, but plan to figure out space in the freezer for it anyway and sell part to some friends that need it. We have a neighbor 1/2 mile up the road that we buy from so we see the cattle everyday.
I check prices in stores every so often and it is outrageous.Comment
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What was cheap meat years ago is no longer chea, and I am not just talking about beef. Remember when chicken wings were dirt cheap. Now in my part of the country boneless, skinless chicken thighs are always cheaper than wings, and when you factor in there is no bone or skin waste they are really cheap. They typically go for $1.99 a pound, and on sale they are $1.77 a pound. Boneless, skinless chicken breast typically go for the same price. Of course, they don’t taste as good as beef, but if you are on a budget they are the way to go.Comment
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In my neighborhood, chicken wings are about $5 a pound.Originally posted by LA Pork Butt View PostComment
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I seldom buy beef anymore. I like doing brisket, but it's just not something I can justify very often. It's sad. I can't remember the last time I did actual steaks for individuals, like ribeye or NY strips. It's literally been years. Like 5+, probably.
I did do a single NY strip for myself once when my wife was out of the country, I THINK that would have been last January - like 2024 January, not this year.
It's terribly sad.
<edit> And I think that single one, I ate half one night, half the next. <sigh>Comment
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We were talking about this over dinner tonight. My dad said he could remember the time when brisket was on sale for $.79/lb back in the day….Comment
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There's another piece of the equation that needs to be taken into account and that is more people than ever have a backyard smoker with the popularity of pellet grills. So the often unpopular cuts like chuck or brisket are in high demand resulting in less ground beef being produced. Coupled with the reasons above all of it has been and will continue to be expensive.Comment
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Almost never order a steak when I go out as I make better at home. My wife doesn't enjoy cooking, subsequently, I do most of the cooking. However, because of work constraints we go out because the thought of cooking and cleaning up after a meal and the time it takes means we do go out some. However, I usually get chicken or pork.
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On a positive note….
rising meat costs have helped me to moderate portion sizes.Comment
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I bought a 2.8lb pack of ground beef the other day for smash burgers. The regular price here for ground chuck is 6.78/lb. Thankfully they had a 'manager's special' pack that expired that day and it was half off, in other words, normal price.Comment
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Just paid $9.99/lb for a standard chuck roast from Harris Teeter... according to my notes, it was $8.99/lb in Feb 24, so that's not a massive escalation. Just one datapoint though.Comment
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