Microbrews -- More to come? Or a fad that will fade away?

[Fellers Ranch]

I like micro brews, and I like visiting breweries and talking to the brewmasters and owners. I have really liked to see the growth over the years.

However, was in a discussion last night, and thought I'd get some input here. (Seems there are a "few" beer drinkers on this forum.)

My fear is that the pendulum has swung, with too many being started . . . And they will fight over a limited market. Many of the best brands are sold to the huge corporate brewers, and some others will go out of business. I hope I am am wrong.

A few trends going against continued expansion of the market:

1. Younger generation seems more interested in options outside of beer -- mixed drinks in a can, White Claw, etc.
2. Hard for micros to appeal to the health crowd. Someone concerned about calories is going to ask for an Ultra. I don't even know what micro I should get if I was concerned about calories.
3. Legalization of pot; drinks being infused with THC.
4. Generation of beer drinkers is getting older -- changing tastes and not drinking as much.

What triggered the discussion was that the group I was was with last night had one beer drinker (me) and 5 mixed drink drinkers . . . All of whom would have been drinking beer 15 years ago.

Are the number of micro brews going to grow or decline?

[captainlee]

Your points are correct from what I have heard. I know a few in Denver have closed recently. A saturated market and changing tastes. Nothing is forever.

[Lynn Dollar]

I'm guessing your using the term microbrew the same as craft beer ?

I've thought the craft beer market was a bubble for the past 5 years or so. I began drinking craft beers about 20 years ago whn it was a lot of fun exploring the different styles. We had a local craft beer bar with a manager who knew his stuff and he would guide us to different beers using pint nights. Those were the good ole days for me.

But more and more small breweries opened. And the competition began for the latest greatest new variation of the styles. Before long, the choices on the shelves were mind boggling and a lot of it just wasn't very good.

Among local brewers here, the shakeout has already begun. A few have gone out of business, maybe the pandemic played into that or maybe the market is just saturated. Or maybe both.

I've noticed the craft beer selection at my grocer has dwindled to almost nothing except one or two from local brewers. I have to trip 10 miles or more to find my old standby's.

My tastes have stayed with the original styles. A pale ale, an IPA, stouts , and I enjoy an import from Europe or the UK occasionally. And that's where my money is going.

[Jfrosty27]

I’m a beer lover through and through. I mean I LOVE beer. And I mean real beer. No light beer in my world. (Sorry Panhead John 😉) So when the micro beers appeared, man I was in all the way.

But as the number of new micro breweries grew, so did the number of really bad beers turned out by them. Not a surprise really. But man I drank some BAD beer from these guys. A good example is the IPA category. Some mighty fine brews out there but it almost became a contest to be the hoppiest IPA available. Some just blow your head off with the bitter taste of the hops.

I for one don’t mind that the crowd is thinning out a bit. I also don’t mind that the big breweries are buying micro brands as long as they don’t change the product. There’s no reason Miller-Coors or whoever can’t make a good beer if they want to.

Geez. Only 8:10 AM here and I already feel like having a beer. 🙄😊

[surfdog]

Amen to that. Some places seem to only have IPAs on hand. And many are terrible. Pass.

I’m not a huge fan of most “yellow” beers anyway…so it’s even worse when they only have a couple IPA, some other yellow, and “light” beers. Bleh

That’s the primary reason why I generally drink cocktails or wine when I go out.

[surfdog]

Besides, if I want a “light” beer…I’ll have a Guinness Draught. 20 less calories than a Budweiser that I ABSOLUTELY cannot drink. (Beechwood makes me violently ill.🤮)

But I look at it this way…if beer/alcohol is a SIGNIFICANT part of one’s caloric intake…ya might be doin’ it wrong anyway. ;-)

[SmokeyGator]

Hedge funds / "venture capitalists" are feverishly buying up all they can. In Miami alone, InBev bought up a bunch of breweries, then recently closed Wynwood, merging it with Veza Sur (located near by). And since it is InBev, really neither are micro brews anymore, I can find Wynwood in Publix.

The question is will InBev (or whoever) start to cheapen the recopies, or will they keep selling for $2/can. Which really is not too bad, I remember in the 90s (30 years ago at this point) Sam Adams being $1 per bottle. $6 for a 6 pack was about the average. And that was 1990s $1, which adjusted for inflation and crap is right at $2 today (in 1995 dollars). So far, they are holding rather steady. And I do not have to go to Wynwood Miami to get it. By the way, I was never going to Wynwood. It is simply too far, parking is a bitch, and until rather recently before it was super trendy and expensive it was gritty and your car had a good chance of being broken into. Now I just go to Publix. A mile or so away.

[Donw]

Not a beer drinker but it is my belief that the decline is already in progress. Years ago our small town near a large beach town had one microbrewery. They have been very successful. Then the others started coming. Now we have about 6 with 2 more just coming to completion, all my customers. In the end most will have their 15 minutes of fame and then fade away as they fight for the same limited number of customers. (And, this trend is already playing out in other areas.)

[Fellers Ranch]

Yes, I used micro brewery to refer to craft breweries.

I do think there is certainly a place for them, and those that are run by good owner-operators can do well . . . But the day of anyone putting one up and making money at it is gone, in my view.

I went to one in a small town in Nebraska, and I can see it surviving as long as the owner/operator is still involved and they keep their brew master. It's the only game in town, they do a good job with it, and people in the region seem loyal to it.

I think that model can work long term. However, the idea of a few buddies deciding to do a micro as a "side-gig" and hiring someone (non-owner) to run it for them is a recipe for failure. A good brewmaster's name will get around, and will get other offers.

[barelfly]

New Mexico has one of the highest number of breweries per capita, and they seem to be going strong here. And it’s a great community as well, as they do collaboration events yearly. It has become a community for the community as well, being able to go to the local brewery near you, as many here have started serving food or have food trucks available. So it has really been a fun experience to go to the different breweries around for events they host. One of our favorites is Truth or Consequences where our lake house is. In Albuquerque, just within 5 miles of our house we have 7 or 8 breweries, some being busier than others.

I am no longer a beer drinker because of being gluten free - but damn do I miss being able to drink an amber or scotch ale style beer. I think that’s the fun part as well, how each brewery puts their spin on various styles of beer and creating a following on some of the limited release brews. But in NM, a few years back breweries were able to carry local spirits and started making an assortment of cocktails, and I think that caters to more people. As long as they carry a cider or seltzer, which that is what we drank prior to cocktails, we are good.

The other type of spots in NM are distilleries and wineries, which is another place we have started to frequent. Here, it’s their spirits or wine along with a few local beers and food/tapas.

So in NM - I think there will continue to be an expansion. There are a few big name breweries in Albuquerque and they are opening up spots on each side of town for that neighborhood feel. I hope they continue to do well and bring a community together, because we need that here.

[Santamarina]

There are some good gluten free beers out these days…and I’m not talking about the sorghum based garbage of years gone by. Beers like Stone Delicious IPA is gluten free…made with traditional brewing malts, but has gluten removed during fermentation. They’re labeled “gluten reduced” because they legally can’t call it “-free” because it’s made with ingredients that originally contained gluten, even though they are well below the FDA’s threshold of “gluten free” products.

[barelfly]

Thank you Santamarina - I’ve had a few GF beers, and a few were decent but it’s been a while. I just gave it all up - as you say some were garbage and I just moved on to bourbon

But, I’ll have to try a few of the new ones and see how those are. There is a brewery a mile from us, the owners wife is Celiacs and he has 3 beers always on tap that are as you mention, Gluten Reduced, as they use an enzyme to help reduce. they are good, but still just made my stomach grumpy. I’ll look for Stone!

[Troutman]

So basically you're saying New Mexicans are a bunch of drunks ???

(just kidding)

[CaptainMike]

The same thing is happening to the wine industry. A combination of a bumper crop in California last year, which lead to an overabundance of stored juice, and a gradual decline in demand is leaving growers large and small with lots of grapes on the vine but no one to sell them to. Growers working with borrowed capital could get really hurt.

[Troutman]

Unfortunately an overabundance has produced a negative affect in that bottled wine cost has crept upward in price in my area. I drink quite a bit of California cabs and they aren't getting any cheaper. Also noticed that my choice of cooking wine, Simi Cab Sauvignon has doubled over the past two years. Oh well, welcome to these inflationary times.

[Starsky]

I think that the cream will rise to the top and the rest will fade away. Some are producing such odd combinations that it just turns me off

[Jfrosty27]

+1. As I said in my post above, some really bad beer being produced out there!

[BostonBestEats]

Post deleted

[bmillin]

I spent a lot of time in Placer County, CA and still have property there. We have a LOT of local brewers that pretty much just serve and sell on their own sites. The successful breweries have set themselves up as destinations - cool vibe, things to do, etc..

Knee Deep is getting bigger and bigger, they make good stuff but the local breweries are not necessarily competing on just their beer. Hell, my favorite spot has gone through some phases where I didn't particularly care for anything they had on tap, but I loved the owners and my friends that hung out there.

[MsTwiggy]

👆 This, there are so many breweries to go to in Seattle it’s fantastic. It’s about getting out of your house, hitting up the food truck. If I go to a Bottle shop almost all they have are all local brews. There is a sensibility to support local, there are enough you can find something you will like. Many breweries are offering hard seltzer and NA stuff so there is something for everyone. I’m not worried about the craft industry. 🔥🔥🐿️

[Fellers Ranch]

BostonBestEats. Very interesting article. Overall national beer sales down 5.1% in 2023 . . .

Taprooms up 3.7%, but brewpubs down .3%. I just googled the definitions . . ..and the they are very similar, except the taprooms don't serve food. That is counter to what I'd guess people would want. I like it when food is there. I wonder if there is a tap room (beer only) but they have food trucks in the parking lot -- is that still counted as at tap room? Or is it now a brew pub because of the food truck?

[MsTwiggy]

Every taproom in Seattle has a food truck. They are cheaper and better than brewpubs IMHO 🔥🔥🐿️

[ItsAllGoneToTheDogs]

we have 2 bottle shops and a brewery (that owns one of the bottle shops) all three support each other and none of them sell food. What they do is bring in food trucks regularly and also allow you to bring in whatever food you want. The food trucks bring them more business without the overhead of having their own food. As to beverage types, if you can't find something to drink at these bottle shops, you probably hate your own tap water. I think it just depends on area and saturation

[surfdog]

There’s a couple I go to that have food trucks pretty regularly. That has to be a huge savings for the tap room. A handful even have the various trucks on their calendars…makes it easy to knows what’s going to be there on any given day.

[DaveD]

There have been several shakeout cycles in the decades since craft brewing became "a thing". I don't see anything unusual in the current situation, it'll go up and down. The history of beer making and drinking in the US is deeply fascinating, and mirrors many larger societal trends in important ways. I'm a massive beer fan, former homebrewer for 25 years, and it's pretty great to be a beer drinker these days IMO...

[mgaretz]

Having been a former microbrewery owner, there will always be swings in the market. I know I got in at one of the peaks and rode it all the way down. If you are just a brewery, you need very deep pockets to survive and compete. Having great beers won't make a difference. We won a Gold Medal at the Great American Beer Festival for our IPA, a Silver for our Red, and our IPA took Best of Show at the California State Fair, beating big and small brewers. None of it mattered. If you have a pub (beer plus food) you are basically a restaurant that happens to make their own beer. You will make it or not based on the food, not the beer. Now there are rules in most states to level the playing field between the big guys and the little guys, but the reality is the big guys don't play by the rules and government basically looks the other way. Why? Taxes. Taxes on alcohol, tobacco and firearms accounts for 33% of the operating revenue of the US with alcohol making up the majority. Not sure what the state numbers are but the percentage is significant.