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COVID-19: As We Start to Emerge from Our Burrows--An Interesting and Informative Article

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    #16
    Common sense seems not so common these days

    Comment


      #17
      Thanks for the info. We are cautious types, we are going to keep being careful until there is a treatment that doesn’t involve ventilators.

      Comment


      • TJMagneto
        TJMagneto commented
        Editing a comment
        Once you get on a ventilator the odds of survival aren't very good.

      • klflowers
        klflowers commented
        Editing a comment
        TJMagneto my point exactly

      #18
      Remember the toxicology rule, “Dosage Matters.”

      Great read thank you. I am cursing joggers and cyclists every day. Mostly just for being rude and skinny though.

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        #19
        Very nicely written, Many Thanks fer sharin, Kathryn!
        Alla Yall stay Safe an Well!

        Comment


          #20
          Very informative article. Most of the information I have seen before but it is nice to have all in one place and organized. I have copied the link and intend to send it around at work tomorrow. I'm working in an Essential Service but fortunately not in close contact. I have found that a lot of people need a reminder from time to time as to how serious this can be.

          Comment


            #21
            From the perspective of a not quite the frontline healthcare worker here. There are a lot of clueless people out there. I understand the need to open things up a bit but there is going to be a cost socially which some people are not willing to pay. The price is using masks, practicing social distancing and having limited access to re-opened businesses. Based on what I've seen and read about, it's going to be ugly.

            Comment


              #22
              fzxdoc Thanks for the post. Well written article, and timely. I live in a rural area and many folks don't believe or don't want to believe the threat posed. The fact that we have no real treatments that work all the time and no vaccine on the horizon make me really question the wisdom of "opening up". And a lot of people forget the whole reason we mostly closed non-essential business's was to "flatten the curve", not get rid of the virus. I'm really hoping there's not a rebound this fall/winter.

              Comment


                #23
                Bless you Kathryn, this kind of informative write up is miles away from the fear mongering that the bigger megaphones emit. This Doc understands that "digging a hole and crawling in it" is not a viable solution. Our society is not structured, and we as humans not wired, to live that way. For a short term effort it works in theory, but despite being on "lock down" condition (even though we all know it wasn't total) we've had a steep upward death rate from C-19. I suspect the good Dr. is also aware of those dangers not being discussed that result from the "lock down". In time we will hear about the big spike in suicides, child and spousal abuse, bankruptcy, divorce, severe depression, and a host of other human maladies that occurred because of poor pandemic coping mechanisms. We tend, as a society, in discussions, to align at polar opposites, regardless of subject matter. Little attention is given to the nuanced discussion/argument points in between those two ends of the spectrum(s). This article looks to be an attempt to broach the subject in a mature way. Again, thanks fzxdoc

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                  #24
                  what opinions you read are worthless. numbers are not. the mortality rate for 95% of America is .oo3%, closer to 1% in ny. 1 and a half times more people have died from pneumonia this year, nationally. these are facts you can get off of the government website (cdc). my opinion is, most America was locked down because we make bad choices when we vote.

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                  • Potkettleblack
                    Potkettleblack commented
                    Editing a comment
                    How many of the people who died from pneumonia were actually SARS-COV-2 patients who didn't have antibody or virus test administered before they died or were autopsied. Tests remain short supplied, and not many available to go back and test a lot of dead folks.

                  • PBCDad
                    PBCDad commented
                    Editing a comment
                    I haven't verified your numbers, but I won't argue with them. I think you are missing the point. A significant part of our population is very vulnerable to the Coronavirus, and the shutdown is intended to limit the spread to them, because they can't reduce the risk to zero. Even with all these efforts, we have a large number of people dying every day.
                    My friend was one of them.
                    To argue that the shutdown is frivolous because "only 5%" of Americans have a high risk of dying is upsetting to me

                  • DesertRaider
                    DesertRaider commented
                    Editing a comment
                    dahcopilot You're quoting a number that has become popular in more political than scientific circles. The actual mortality rate is calculated by the number of deaths/number of infections. As stated below, we don't have a "real" number yet because the pandemic is ongoing, and we still aren't really at a point where testing capacity is sufficient to give us better information. As others have noted, those pneumonia deaths this year are dramatically increased, and probably due to covid10.

                  #25
                  fzxdoc Thank you for that article. I will be sharing with some of my less sensible family and friends.

                  Comment


                    #26
                    Thanks fzxdoc Interesting story in there about Bob, not his real name. How many he was able to infect.

                    Comment


                      #27
                      dahcopilot The numbers you state are not valid. First we cannot compute a Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) because we need to know the total number of people infected, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, and that requires much more testing than we are doing. So, we are left only being able to try and determine a temporary Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on the number of people who so far have symptoms or tested positive. To arrive at the actual IFR or CFR we need to add a time element such as when all cases or infections are finally resolved, and we are not there yet.

                      Johns Hopkins’ Mortality Analyses is a good place to go to see how the actual numbers are looking. The latest run was completed this Sunday and shows a CFR of 6% in the US, and deaths per 100,000 population being 24.31 per 100,000. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

                      Comment


                      • Donw
                        Donw commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Jerod Broussard At Hopkins the numbers are run only with diagnosed cases and not with possible implied or undiagnosed cases. Undiagnosed rates are being studied now at places such as the CDC and UDN at Harvard. Those results will be published sometime in the future but they take a lot of time to do right.

                      • Jerod Broussard
                        Jerod Broussard commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Thanks! Where's Theranos? That product would be invaluable right now.

                      • DesertRaider
                        DesertRaider commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Jerod Broussard Reading the CDC guidlines for listing cause of death in suspected COVID-19 cases is pretty clear. In looking at the guidelines it clearly differentiates between IC (immediate cause) vs UC (underlying cause). So, there is no inflation of numbers, if anything, it's pretty dramatically under reported.

                      #28
                      anyone can go to the government website and get the numbers. or you can watch abc news, your choice. quarantine is for the sick and at risk, not the healthy. i have many friends who are on the road to bankruptcy because of this farce, however i am staying open because i am "essential". no one has the right to make that decision.

                      Comment


                      • fzxdoc
                        fzxdoc commented
                        Editing a comment
                        We're all entitled to our opinions. You're doing what works for you. Carry on and be safe out there.

                        Kathryn

                      #29
                      Careful folks. Some seem to be steering this thread towards the political, which as we all know, is verboten here.
                      Huskee

                      Comment


                      • Dewesq55
                        Dewesq55 commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Thanks for this. I'm biting my tongue so hard I'm tasting blood.

                      • DesertRaider
                        DesertRaider commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Thanks for the reminder.

                      • EdF
                        EdF commented
                        Editing a comment
                        We all know the prescription: grumble if you need to (it's actually good for you), grab some food, light a fire, adult beverage, and tend them temps!

                      #30
                      Thanks for the link. Every day I learn a little more about this virus and it helps me navigate these uncertain times. Everyone has different risks and risk tolerances, there is no one solution fits all. As a “senior” with compromised immunity, I will continue to shelter in place until more is known.....

                      on the bright side, with all the healthy cooking at home for the last 8 weeks, I actually lost weight, go figure......

                      Comment


                      • Dan Deter
                        Dan Deter commented
                        Editing a comment
                        No fair! That hasn't worked for me!

                      • HawkerXP
                        HawkerXP commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I'm down 20 lbs! Its not from missing fast food.

                      • fzxdoc
                        fzxdoc commented
                        Editing a comment
                        Well, at least I haven't gained, which is good, given some of the junk food I've taken to snacking on. My weight is right where I want it, and I hope to keep it that way.

                        Kathryn

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