Got a game spread question

[Jerod Broussard]

When they show Saints 54.0 and Bengals +5.5 does that mean the teams are going to score a combined 54 points and the Saints win by at least 5.5??? Never done the game betting thing so no clue big time.

And, I am checking online, but are the Steelers really beating the snot out of Carolina right now???

[FireMan]

Yeah, it’s called an old fashioned blow out. Never saw this comin.

[ssandy_561]

That is what those numbers represent. Vegas sets those numbers so they get equal bets for both the over and under and equal bets for both the Saints and Bengals. That way they always make money.
You may also see those numbers change a bit closer to game time. If Vegas starts to see more money put on the over they might raise it by a point to encourage more people to bet the under.

[JGo37]

Don't choose who may win based on the Vegas line. Do you have more context on this question that you can share? If you do, I'll get on my soapbox.

At a high level, you can start to sense who may win based upon defense and offense stats of the season, weighting recent a bit more than earlier (giving credit to trending). For instance - scores 28 PTs per game on average, gives up 17. Then look at the other team and what they do. Then look at the injury reports, and where each team gets their production from. Is 30% of their production injured? Is it run or pass, and what is this week's opponent good and weak at defensively. Sometimes it comes down to the individual matchups on the line for really close calls, or the ratio of pass / run against a team that may be strong or weak in the secondary. Throw in QB experience when reading the secondary, and how many defensive looks a team can give. A strong defense based on cover plan masking won't perform against an elite experienced QB - etc., e.g. Wade versus Payton - the Louisiana Ruling goes to DREW, Rams lose.

See? It's easy.