This is NOT political, just a question

[Nuke em]

Let this be clear, I don’t not want a political answer about this if this is right or wrong to be doing. Let the chips fall where they may.
That being said, with all these tariff talks against China on the export of beef and pork from the USA to China, I found it interesting on how much beef and pork is being sent to China. Billions of dollars worth.
I heard someone say this would be bad for the usa (of course the farmers always get the short end of the stick) but he said that it would be bad for the USA because “there is more than enough food being produced in the USA to feed the USA”. I tend to lean on disagreeing with that statement.
Now if the tariffs do go into effect and me thinking of the supply and demand system, I wonder if that will drive the price of beef and pork down? I also wonder why China has to receive so much beef and pork from the USA. Could it be the strict regulations from the usda and It’s better meat grades? I see some links about Usa beef and pork exports which I’m not gonna post (there are hundreds of em) but I thought that China wouldn’t have to import from the USA the supply of beef and pork
again, not asking if this is political correct, just wondering if this means I can cook more food for a cheaper price.

[Nate]

ibtl

[Mark E.]

Only thing I understand is that commodities (my financial mentality being at the 11 year old child level) have been so manipulated, and unless you are a financial wizardX10power, watched about 50 hours of financial analyst debates, the answer is still not clear.

M.

[leol2]

As someone who has traded cattle, hogs and bellies for a living let me say that I believe short-term the price might be driven down. However breeders will adjust the first breeding cycle and produce less meat raising prices to their current levels if not higher. As soon as the tariffs are removed or adjusted we would be caught with a shortfall of available meat until the breeders can produce more meat driving prices up. This will not hurt the American consumer that much in the long run but could severely hurt the small producers and may drive some out of business if they are now in financial distress

[Troutman]

On China needing meat, one statistic says it all ..... 1.4 billion hungry souls

[Georgia rookie 903]

well here is something that entered into my mind. 1ST I was raised on a small farm with vegetables, cows hogs, goats chickens. so I know a little about farmers situation. we need to erase some of the USDA,and GOVT so called regulations and let the farmer do what works for him I remember the GOVT paying my family NOT to grow things thats called market manipulations. and the small framer suffers..... just MHO

[Nuke em]

Hence,short end of the stick. It’s so unfortunate....and I agree about the cycle.

[Danjohnston949]

Boy's and Girls of "The PIT CLUB", I Personally Don't Believe It's Possible To Have A Non Political Discussion on This Topic but I'm Going to Try❗️ First: The Balance of Trade Is Affected By Tarrifs❗️ Grains, Meats, and Produce are Amonst the Few Things We Don't Have a Trade Defficate❗️ As Long As Our Population Can Afford to Feed Itself, It Is All Subjective, IMHOP❗️ Having Grown Up On A Small Homestead Farm (-1200 Acres Dry Land Farm), Now Owned by My Sisters, Brother and I❗️ I'll Never Forget My Dad Saying That Farmers WereAmongst The Greediest People On Earth❗️ They Continually Try To Put Their Neighbors Out Of Business Via Land Rents, Size of Farms, Scale of Operations i.e. FeedLots and . . .❗️ Why Shoot, Like WalMart Many Even Have Their Own Bean Counters Now❗️ For Years Subsidation of the Ag Community Was Based On A Cheap Food Policy For The Town and City Dwellers❗️ Now It Seems That Food Is Going To Be a Weapon In Our Trade Policies❓ IMHOP, We Need to Restrict Foriegn Imports and Force Our US Corps. to Get Their A--ES Back To The USA❗️ In the Meantime It Doesn't Bother Me To Feed Hungry People‼️
From a Backyard Cremator in Fargo ND, Dan

[Potkettleblack]

It's going to lower prices in the short term and raise them in the long term. Whether it raises them to parity with the present or beyond, that's a forecasting question that I won't get into.

The larger question, if you're a pig or cattle firm, is how long it's liable to run. I wouldn't bet on long, so I probably wouldn't adjust production, but I'm more skeptical of the willpower of the current administration than your average analyst.

To Dan's points, Food has been a weapon in foreign policy since the Great Grain Robbery of 1972. Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz weaponized our food supply and changed the subsidy incentives. Without getting political, this was an absolutely horrible idea on so many levels it staggers the mind.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_grain_robbery

[smokenoob]

probably...

[Jon Solberg]

ibtl

m2....

[Huskee]

Nothing wrong with discussion of what could happen with world & national meat pricing, but please continue to keep gov't, presidents, etc, and political opinions out of this discussion, thanks!

[Mosca]

Since the beginning of time, the big guys start the wars and the little guys suffer for it.

Doesn't matter what kind of war. This will always be true.

[RustyHaines]

Keeping politics out of this: If the US farmer is producing enough food to export to foreign countries why are there people in the US going hungry?

[Willy]

Economics is far from an exact science, but that doesn't mean economists know nothing. One of things that economists of most "schools" agree on is that tariffs are a bad idea. I agree with those above who say prices will likely drop in the short run and will rise in the long run, assuming this "trade war" continues. Meantime, I have nothing but sympathy for the farmers and meat producers. Theirs is a tough business, especially the "little guys".