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Weber IPO

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    Weber IPO

    Apparently, the Weber IPO was less than stellar:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/grill...012017839.html

    They were up about 20% more recently.
    Last edited by Murdy; August 5, 2021, 07:44 PM.

    #2
    Maybe DumpsterFire’s publicity is a little worse than they think. Pretty sad when Traeger out did them on their IPO.

    Comment


      #3
      Still hard to say how this will play out. There is so much competition in this space right now. Regardless of their recent issues, I would have a hard time investing. Their brand has surely slipped and that has not helped either.
      Last edited by DavidNorcross; August 5, 2021, 02:35 PM.

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        #4
        I want Weber to succeed, and thought about throwing some cash into some shares, but that is certainly not a promising start.

        Comment


        • Andrrr
          Andrrr commented
          Editing a comment
          glitchy I hear ya. Having shareholders to appease will only force them to start squeezing quarters.

        • jfmorris
          jfmorris commented
          Editing a comment
          glitchy I will be the first to tell you that my 2019 Genesis II is nowhere near the quality of construction or materials of my 2002 Genesis. It's really disappointing really, to see how flimsy the Genesis II is compared to the older Genesis from 20 years ago. Plus the ones back then literally had about 5-10 minutes of assembly. The manual called it "stop watch engineering".

        • glitchy
          glitchy commented
          Editing a comment
          jfmorris They could probably still call it that, there’s so many steps now your smart watch will go dead and stop :-) My Silver A from about the same time as yours was definitely built better in a lot of ways. Once assembled the new seem fine and they’re on the hook for 10 years if not (and I bought from Costco if I get frustrated), but it’s sad what they’ll do to increase profit by $5 on a $1000 product, even through it will probably cost them 10x that in later warranty parts.

        #5
        In the discussion on this we had a couple or so weeks ago I suggested that their projections wouldn't hold IF the investor class realized that reacting positively to the spike in sales last year (Covid driven) was risky as a predictor of future sales levels. Perhaps I was correct. I doubt that the investor class has near the awareness of any perceived quality degradation that we enthusiasts might have, and the glitches in the SmokeFire launch might not have been on their radar either for similar reasons. It's more likely the brokerage analysts saw the spike in sales as the anomaly it was and touted their sales departments accordingly. Whatever the cause(s), the price will stabilize shortly after the normal sorting out period, which might be the time for any here that are interested to buy in if so motivated.

        Comment


        • glitchy
          glitchy commented
          Editing a comment
          You would think Traeger would have had the same issue with a sudden spike in COVID sales. It sounds like they got a lot closer to their target and raised closer to double the capital of Weber’s IPO.

        • Murdy
          Murdy commented
          Editing a comment
          Not just anomalous, but apt to suppress future sales. Most people don't buy grills every other year. Everybody that bought last year will not be looking to buy a new grill for quite a while.

        • glitchy
          glitchy commented
          Editing a comment
          Murdy Every other year? That’s an eternity between new cookers 🤪

        #6
        glitchy that probably is another example of the difference between an enthusiast pov and the investment community pov. Pellet cookers, over the past few years, have been the fastest growing sales segment of the outdoor cooker arena (part of why Weber finally got in on it). The marketing types, info that attracts the investment analysts attentions, say that within a couple years pellet cookers will probably be the number one type of outdoor cooker in sales volume. Deserved or not, Traeger is also the most recognizable name in pellet cookers which adds to investor confidence in addition to broker recommendations.

        Murdy, yes that's true. I think I also mentioned something similar in that other posting. I speculated that a lot of those buyers from the Covid lockdown era may not be so enthusiastic this year and by the next off season will be tired of losing patio space to the unused equipment. The result could be a number of lightly used cookers showing up on sales boards, both diluting future new sales and driving down used pricing...... at least for a brief window in time.

        Comment


          #7
          Uncle Bob I remember seeing numbers for the pellet grill market segment somewhere a while back and it was surprisingly small. Gas still had an order of magnitude lead over everything. I don't disagree that pellet grills are the fastest growing, but the numbers I saw suggested it would be a lot more than a couple years away from poopers being anywhere close to gas grills. I tried to find some numbers this morning, but all I can find are industry analysis reports that cost money.

          I just still find it strange that Traeger outperformed Weber. Traeger would be subject to the same logic that all of the people that drove up sales during COVID aren't likely to buy another Traeger in 2 years (it's more like 3 because that's all the longer their warranty is, lol). They should have some huge red flags in front of them with frivolous lawsuits underway suing other companies for technology the others created before them, etc. They've run ads that were kinda offensive and got pulled pretty quickly (Tastes like gASS). It's also not like Traeger hasn't done all the same things as Weber constantly trying to shave every penny off their builds that they can using thinner metal, cheaper parts, etc.

          Anyway, I guess that's why I don't trade in individual stocks, I don't understand the details of how investors think. Maybe they are seeing Weber as more of a has been and on the down turn.
          Last edited by glitchy; August 6, 2021, 09:13 AM.

          Comment


          • Uncle Bob
            Uncle Bob commented
            Editing a comment
            You're probably close with your closing sentence. Weber reportedly holds 23% of the North American market in sales volume. It wouldn't surprise me if the analysts are cautious/pessimistic about any possible growth from that huge of a number, and may consider them vulnerable to more aggressive competition.

          #8
          I sold DOGE and bought a few shares of WEBR.

          Comment

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