Brisket @ Texas BBQ Joints RIP?

[Uncle Bob]

The author didn't get all that deep into market conditions beyond the claim of price fixing. Despite the rapid rise in beef prices the past few years, demand hasn't declined much, if at all, for beef........even the more expensive grades. I get a daily industry newsletter that indicates feed lot/auction volumes are down again, year over year. There's been a fair amount of herd culling, especially due to draught last year, so supplies are somewhat tighter. Some relief has come from imports increasing slightly, but not much.

Pork, on the other hand, is going the other direction demand wise. The retail pork sales are down 23% over the past 5 years. Might explain why you still see sales at your grocery store for pork butt at somewhere around a dollar a pound. There's plenty of speculation on the whys behind that decline, but I don't think anyone has done a legitimate deep dive................or maybe I just haven't seen it.

I won't go into my major rant on the lies involved in reported inflation numbers that flow through the so called news world. I'll just remind folks that the headline inflation numbers don't include food, housing, and energy costs.............because.................who is affected by those silly things.

[jfmorris]

Yeah - the pricing is why I don't go after brisket often, IF it is even on the menu at a BBQ joint I walk into here in Alabama. I'll eat brisket when I find it on sale for $1.99 or $2.99 a pound at Kroger, but I'm not paying $30 a pound to eat it. I'll get some pork or chicken at those prices, or some sausage...

So do you see Texas BBQ joints doing more pork and less beef on average, to be able to stay in business?

[Clark]

That is why the BBQ joints push the high profit items such as mac/cheese, beans, potato salad, slaw, iced tea and soft drinks that have huge markups. Who in their right mind would pay $5-$6 for a side of any of the above?

[Uncle Bob]

Not necessarily. Many of the top joints claim they source their quality briskets from Creekstone, so those may come from further afield. That said, in relative terms, market pricing runs in a narrow band across the country.

[MsTwiggy]

I agree completely with this that the new paradigm for restaurants in a glut of options and social marketing is scarcity and hype. IMO if a bbq joint in Texas needs to buy prime briskets to be competitive they are in the wrong business.🔥🔥🐿️

[Smoker_Boy]

I'm assuming this is Texas brisket coming from Texas meat facilities?

[Troutman]

Generally I think you’re right Panhead John but the use of the term in retail is used interchangeably. Lost past tense, loss present. That said I think loss is probably more correct, so I stand corrected.

[Huskee]

au4stree That's where I ended up as well. More fun cooking for family and friends than trying to make ends meet doing it.

[Jerod Broussard]

You can run brisket that is just sliced up, you just need to run out everyday, have enough people willing to start standing/sitting in line 5-6 hours before opening so they can brag about the EXPERIENCE online, and are willing to pay out the nose just like they would at a major theme park. Easy peasy.

Brisket (Choice-Select) was $0.98/lb at wolly world in 2012. Right now it's $3.46/lb and I don't see it dropping back under $3, ever.

[Panhead John]

Not trying to be picky but it’s actually referred to as a “loss leader”. 🥸 Great post!

[au4stree]

I was going to comment the same thing. I did due diligence on the notion of a food truck(restaurant) and it was a hard pass. I don’t mind the competition, it was the thought of having a second marriage. Everyone I talked to in the biddness told me that exact thing, for it to succeed you have to treat it like another marriage. I’ll just stick to cooking for family and friends.

[Troutman]

That's restaurants in general. Like most small businesses, 60% fail because they don't understand the business aspect beyond just being good cooks.

[Huskee]

Interesting. It's such an investment for makers too, unlike pizza, which is of course everywhere but simple and quick to make so it won't succumb to this fate. I'm glad I did not pursue running a BBQ joint/food truck like I wanted to years ago, albeit I'm not in Texas but the cutthroat nature of making a profit with all-day BBQ is the same even if there's far less of it here.

[Troutman]

Like most popular items in today's food culture, barbecue (and specifically Central Texas style brisket) may in fact be a victim of its own popularity. I've recently written about this in another posting, Texas is becoming inundated with ever increasing craft barbecue joints. It's like a field of mushrooms, they are popping up all over the place. Added to that natural competition, you have ever increasing food costs due to supply and demand. What used to be a cheap, tough cut of meat that needed to be cooked low and slow to make it edible, is quickly becoming the poster child victim of its own popularity.

JC Reid's recent article agrees with that sentiment, I thought I'd post it for sake of discussion. Brisket may indeed be pricing its way out of many barbecue joints that don't learn to adapt, increase their offerings and see brisket as it has become, a lost leader.


Why the days of brisket as a Texas barbecue joint staple may be numbered


By J.C. Reid,
Correspondent
Feb 15, 2024

Texas barbecue has a math problem. Specifically, with the cost of brisket. Both in how much a pitmaster pays to acquire and cook the raw product and in what the customer pays to consume the finished product.

This has resulted in the unthinkable: some barbecue joint pitmasters have considered removing brisket from their menus, if only temporarily. No one is willing to go on the record yet, though.

How did we get here? Essentially, it’s due to the stubbornly high cost of beef, specifically brisket. The economics of selling brisket are broken.

First, a quick refresher on how brisket is made and sold. Conservatively, it costs a barbecue joint about $10 to produce a pound of high-grade brisket. This includes the wholesale price of raw brisket, the loss incurred when trimming and cooking it and other expenses, like salt and pepper and the wood needed to cook it.

In order to cover the other costs of running a restaurant, specifically labor and overhead like rent, the pitmaster needs to sell that brisket at three times the cost, i.e. $30. This is just to break even. The economics of selling brisket are broken. And for now, pitmasters are stuck selling an unprofitable product.

Over the last few years, pitmasters have determined that consumers, at least in Texas, have a price ceiling of about $30 per pound when it comes to buying brisket. Some joints are trying to squeeze out a small profit by selling at $32-$34 per pound.

So, barbecue joints are stuck selling their most popular menu item either at a loss or just to break even. You don’t need to be a math whiz to realize this is unsustainable.

Armchair beef economists may note that the price of raw brisket goes up and down all the time, so what’s the big deal? Indeed, in the past, a spike in beef prices would result in a commensurate increase in barbecue joint brisket prices. When that spike passed and the cost went down, the barbecue joint left their price the same (usually temporarily) to recoup some of the lost profit that happened during the spike.

No harm, no foul, right? Well, the problem in the last few years is the raw cost of beef isn’t coming back down, or at least not enough. The wholesale price of Prime grade brisket continues to hover in the $4-$6 per pound range, resulting in a stubbornly high total cost of $8-$12.

Why is the price not coming down? This is the subject of endless debate, but it comes down to Texas barbecue being a victim of its own success. As barbecue has expanded both nationally and internationally, the demand for beef in general and brisket in particular has remained high. There aren’t many substitutes for brisket in terms of flavor and tenderness.

Additionally, other industry stakeholders, such as cattlemen, have accused the biggest meatpacking companies of colluding to keep beef prices artificially high. In the absence of government intervention in this alleged collusion, or a collapse in demand for beef, prices are expected to remain high.

Barbecue joint owners and pitmasters are looking at the numbers and looking for a solution. One obvious solution is simply to not sell a product at a loss. In other words, just take brisket off the menu and replace it with something else.

Unfortunately, there aren’t many substitutes for brisket in terms of flavor and tenderness. Beef cheek has been substituted in some cases, though the economics of that cut has its own challenges.

For now, pitmasters are stuck selling an unprofitable product. To be sure, brisket won’t disappear from menus anytime soon. But as new menu items are developed and consumer tastes evolve, something else may replace brisket as a Texas barbecue staple.

Feb 15, 2024
By J.C. Reid